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| International Agrophysics |
| publisher: | Institute of Agrophysics
Polish Academy of Sciences
Lublin, Poland |
| ISSN: |
0236-8722 |
vol. 23, nr. 3 (2009)
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Climate change impact on land capability using MicroLEIS DSS
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F. Shahbazi1, A.A. Jafarzadeh1, F. Sarmadian2, M.R. Neyshaboury1, S. Oustan1, M. Anaya-Romero3, M. Lojo3, D. de la Rosa3
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1 Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, 51664-16471, Tabriz, Iran |
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2 Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran |
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3 Institute for Natural Resources and Agrobiology (IRNAS), Centre of the Science Research Council (CSIC), Avda. Reina Mercedes 10, 41012 Sevilla, Spain |
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vol. 23 (2009), nr. 3,
pp. 277-286
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abstract
The effects of climate change on land capability are compared for two cultivation methods (irrigated and rainfed) in a semi-arid region – Ahar (East Azarbaijan, IRAN). Two models: Terraza and Cervatana, included in the land evaluation decision support system called MicroLEIS DSS, were used. While Terraza gives a quantitative prediction of the bioclimatic deficiency of a site, Cervatana forecasts the general land use capability or suitability for a broad series of possible agricultural uses. A future scenario of climate change was calculated according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on regions of Asia under scenario A1 (highest future emission) for 2080s. The results showed that climate change is likely to cause severe water stress in irrigated cultivation of alfalfa, sugar beet, potato, and maize, being the use of irrigation methods essential to maintain the agricultural productivity. However, the land capability classification for wheat crop in the future scenario will remain constant. Although irrigation is indicated as very important in this semi-arid agriculture, cultivation of rainfed wheat can be possible instead of the irrigated cultivation. In summary, this modelling application approach predicts that yield reduction of the selected crops, in rainfed and irrigated conditions, will increase by 18 and 13%, respectively.
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keywords
climate change scenario, land capability evaluation, MicroLEIS DSS, semi-arid climate, yield reduction
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